Euro 2012 - Group C.
Spain:
Qualified Group I winners
The defending European and World Champions are aiming to win an unprecedented 3rd major title in a row and a first glance it's had to see past them for a final birth but there are now chinks in the armour.
First off injuries have robbed them of two of their most potent weapons. Carlos Puyol, the leader on the pitch who marshaled not just the defence but the whole side, rallying them when they're under pressure.
Perhaps the bigger loss though is that of David Villa. Golden Boot at Euro 2008 and tied Golden Boot at the 2010 FIFA World Cup, he's Spain's record goal scorer with 51 goals in 82 matches and top scorer in La Liga in 6 of the last 7 seasons. At the 2010 FIFA World Cup he scored 5 of Spain's 8 goals and that fact that none of the other 3 came from a striker is Spain's problem.
The possible replacements are an out of sorts Fernando Torres, Athletic Bilbao's Fernando Llorente a physical striker who's form seemed to wane at the tail end of a long season and Alvaro Negredo who didn't feature in any of the qualifying campaign. So the big question is where will the goals come from? It's fine to have a team full of slick passing midfielders but if you can't put the ball in the net you wont win tournaments - Spain's last friendly against a very average Chinese side (a 1 nil win thanks to an 84th minute goal to David Silva) could be a sign of things to come.
The loss of Puyol also creates a problem - where the Spanish have been imperious at the back in recent years their key defenders aren't performing. Pique has been out of sorts all season at Barca (even getting dropped for a while) and his likely partner in the centre is a converted right back in Sergio Ramos. This coupled with inexperience in Jordi Alba and lack of matches in Raul Alboil (just La Liga matches and 5 UCL matches all season) in the full back positions means things are far from solid at the back for La Roja.
The other issue that seems to be clouding the camp is the disharmony between the Real and Barca players within the squad. The manager seems to be aware of the issue saying "If Pique and Ramos do not get along, they’ll be dropped. They are young kids with their differences, but we have no problems.” Xavi has also recently chimed in intimating that the Real players are bad winners and losers.
Five off seasons of action could also be taking toll on the big players in the side and fatigue may be a factor - I think they're a very good side but one with issues that need resolving both on and off the pitch. I think they'll make it out of the group but can't see them winning the tournament.
Tip - Group C Runners Up
Euro 2012 - Group C.
Italy:
Qualified Group C winners
If you take any notice of history when it comes to the Italian national side you'll be popping into your local TAB to throw a lazy tenner on them winning Euro 2012. Before you think I've lost it let me explain.
In 1982 Italian football was recovering from a match fixing scandal, no one, not even the Italian media expected the team to do anything but show up but thanks to the prodigal son Paolo Rossi (just back from a ban for his part in the scandal) and his goals the Dino Zoff led Azzurri were crowned champions.
Fast forward to 2006, Italian football was recovering from a match fixing scandal that had seen Rossi's former club Juventus relegated to Serie B for their involvement, once again no one fancied them to go close to winning it and thanks to a dominant tournament from striker Luca Toni they did the unexpected and lifted the trophy.
2012, Italian football is in the throws of a match fixing scandal, some big names are said to be involved, members of the squad have been dropped because they've been implicated and once again no one thinks the Italians will win - even their coach Cesare Prandelli has said he doesn't think the side are there too win but to get experience for the next World Cup! See what I mean!
As for which striker will step forward and make his mark take your pick from Mario Batlotelli who'd have us believe he's a genius, reformed bad boy Antonio Cassano or the veteran who's still scoring at top level for Udinese Antonio Di Natale. Oh and the Juventus link is there again too - they've won the Serie A this season fo the first time in nine years without losing a game.
The Azzurri look reasonably strong across the pitch too. The defence will include Buffon in goal with fellow Juve players Chiellini, Barzagli and Bonucci vying for places in front of him meaning the stability and combinations will be there to offer a typically stoic Italian defence.
In front of the them is probably the Azzurri's strongest part of the squad, Andrea Pirlo will pull the strings from in front of the back four with Juve team mate Claudio Marchisio, Roma captain Daniele De Rossi and Fiorentina's play maker Riccardo Montolivo making up a diamond formation in front of him and with quality players like Thiago Motta and Sebastian Giovinco on the bench the Italian midfield will dominate most sides.
The preparation may not have been great and the friendly results not that impressive but when it comes to the games that matter the Italians will be tough to beat.
Tip - Group C winners
Euro 2012 - Group C.
Croatia:
Qualified Group F Runners Up
The Croat's have a short but proud tournament history with a semi final appearance in the 1998 FIFA Wold Cup and a Quarter Final appearance last time out at the Euro's. They qualified by beating Turkey in the play offs with an impressive 3 nil in Istanbul after finishing runner up to the Greeks in Group F.
Croatia's strength is in midfield where Luka Modric tends to play as a deep lying play maker - a role similar to Pirlo's for Italy alongside the ball winning ability of either Bayern's Danijel Pranjic or Dynamo Kiev's Ognjen Vukojevic. On the right side captain Darijo Srna offers stability, crossing accuracy and a threat from set pieces and over on the left Croatian manager Slaven Bilic has the luxury of choosing between two very creative players in Niko Kranjar and Sevilla's Ivan Rakitic. In the hole linking the lone striker and the midfield is another goalscoring play maker in Wolfsburg's Mario Mandzukic, who if he can stay fit could be a surprise package in this tournament.
Up front the loss of Bayern Munich's Ivica Olic will hurt, his physicality and tireless running is something that will be hard to replace. The options are Eduardo the Brazilian born Croatian who hasn't been the same player since breaking his leg for Arsenal, Nikica Jelavic who while impressing in his short time at Everton is yet to prove himself on the international stage and the young pretender Ivan Perisic who will have a bigger role to play at his club side Borussia Dortmund next season.
As a former centre back Bilic's biggest concern will ironically be his back four, they lack pace and against Greece in qualifying at least look vulnerable at set pieces.
Croatia could potentially upset the big two in this group but I'll be keeping my cash in my pocket at this stage.
Tip - Group C Third
Euro 2012 - Group C.
Ireland:
Qualified Group B Runners Up
The Irish made their first major tournament since the 2002 FIFA Wold Cup by beating Estonia 5 - 1 on aggregate after finishing second to Russia in Group B.
Their biggest strength and weakness could be one and the same - the boss Giovanni Trapattoni.
He's got the Irish this far by playing a fairly rigid 4-4-1-1 making them hard to break down but at the same time making them fairly predictable. Robbie Keane is key to the sides chances playing in the hole and effectively being the sides play maker and goal scorer, of his fellow strikers Shane Long looks the most likely to score goals at the highest level thanks to his pace but Trappattoni prefers to start with the more physical Kevin Doyle or the bustling style of Stoke City's Jon Walters.
The centre of the park offer very little going forward with Keith Andrews and Glen Whelan used to shield the back four rather than feed the front players. Out wide Damian Duff isn't the player he was but Aiden McGeady looks like he could cause a few sides problems with his tricky and pace.
Where I think Trapattoni may have problems is the lack of variety in the squad - he seems very settled on one style and if that doesn't work there is very little he can do to change things. I think he may have missed a trick in leaving Norwich pair, midfield schemer Wes Hoolahan and winger/second striker Anthong Pilkington out of the squad - their presence in Polkraine could have made the Irish a different prospect.
Alongside Robbie Keane Ireland two most important players are Keeper Shay Given and versatile defender John O'Shea - both have been under injury clouds coming into the tournament and keeping them fit is a must if Ireland are to have any chance.
Tip - Group C Fourth
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